Reply To: The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
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University: Northeastern University
None of the arguments the developers make seems particularly controversial on first glance. It is plausible to lend money to the developers, because the Jazz Club will be a successful business. However, the argument is contingent on a series of logical flaws. Before drawing the conclusion, the developers should provide more specific evidences.
First, the developers say that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, because there were 100000 people in the jazz festival. However, they do not provide the raw number of the local attendees. were all the 100000 people from Monroe or cities near Monroe? Maybe, there just were 100 locals going to the festival, or none of the attendees was resident of Monroe. Allowing locals went to this festival, what was the proportion of locals? If only 10% of the attendees were locals, the jazz club may not succeed in Monroe and is likely to be bankrupt. Without the specific number of the locals who attended the festival last year, we cannot assure that jazz club is a successful business.
Second, developers also tell us that there is no jazz club in Monroe and some famous musicians live here. It is very weird to say that jazz is popular in Monroe, but there is no any jazz club. Perhaps, the developers themselves reckon merely jazz is popular in Monroe, and few residents are likely to listen to jazz. Allowing jazz is popular in Monroe, the nearest club may be a successful one, and every local loves to go there. can the developers make sure their jazz club can take a bit of the market share? If the answer is no, then we cannot lend money to them. As for the famous musicians, they choose Monroe as home, because the nature landscape in Monroe is beautiful, or there is no one can bother them. Besides, there is no manifest correlation between successful business and local famous musicians. Hence, developers need to offer more information to convince us.
Third, Is the Jazz Nightly the only radio station in Monroe? If it is the case, then it must be the highest-rated radio. Without the proportional statistic about the market share of the Jazz Nightly, developers’ argument is not persuasive enough. Besides, is the nationwide study representative? Perhaps, it is another case in Monroe which few locals do spend such amount money on jazz entertainment. Even though it is the case in Monroe, it does not mean every dollar goes to the jazz club.
In short, we do not have reliable evidences and further information to ascertain that the jazz club will be successful in Monroe. In order to make the recommendation more convincing, the developers should provide more specific evidences to persuade us.