Argument 60 Investment in Consolidated Industires

In this letter, the author recommends that the client should invest in Consolidated Industries because of a prediction of increasing demand for heating oil in the winter. To support the conclusion, the author points out that due to the cold temperature, oil is the major heating fuel for most homes in the northeastern United States traditionally and an abnormal freezing winter occurred in last year might continue for several more years. While this claim might be valid to some extent, the reasoning of the argument is unconvincing due to several unwarranted assumptions, which if proven false, will seriously undermine the author’s recommendation.

First, when discussing the bad weather, the author apparently assumes that the weather prediction that this climate pattern will continue for several more years is quite reliable. However, one can not easily trust the weather report for the climate changes frequently, especially when predicting the temperature years later. In addition, many scholars believe the global temperature will increase in the long term, which is supported by the fact that the sea level has risen, it might be the same with northeastern United States. We can not get a sound conclusion that the weather pattern will continue just from 90-day below-normal temperatures last heating season. Then the assumption is defeated and the author’ suggestion becomes absurd.

Furthermore, even if the weather will continue for the next few years, we should be cautious of the assumption that those new-built homes would adopt the traditional oil heating method. Perhaps citizens in the northeastern United States will not live in the new houses and the recent population growth is not due to new migraters but to babies. It is quite possible that people would like to introduce some new ways for heating, such as coal or a more economic choice – wind power, which not only saves a large amount of money, but also causes less pollution and contributes to the environment. Therefore, the demand for heating oil may not increase, or even become worse. If this is the case, the previous assumption is invalid and we should vote against the author’s proposal.

Consequently, while the author’s suggestion appears appealing, the questionable assumptions above might deprive it of feasibility.