In twenty years there will be fewer cars in use than there are today.

In twenty years there will be fewer cars in use than there are today.

Cars is one of the most convenient means of transportation of our daily life, meanwhile, other new types of transportation have developed rapidly. Some may prospect that in twenty years there will be fewer cars in use than there are today. But I think the possibility is tiny.

First, the fiercely increasing of the population brings lots of requirement for vehicles. Although there are more and more new means of transportation that could replace cars, such as subway, bus or airplane. But there is no doubt that a large amount of people still take their cars to come back and forth between their houses and workplaces, and the role of the private cars can not be completely substituted in a short period of time. So with the growth of global population and development of economic in some poor areas which haven’t had many private cars, the need of cars will increase fiercely as well. Compared with such increasing, the number of people who chose other ways of transportation will be petty and negligible.

Some may argue that it is really possible for the appearance of the air-cars in the next twenty years. But in my opinion that possibility is also very tiny, because there are several difficulties can’t be solved now. First, although the principle for the car to float in the air has already made sense, but the expenses for this is enormously expensive. Just think about how much should be paid for a airplane to take off. Second, the security of such air-cars can’t be assured effectively. There are more uncertain factors in the air than on the land, therefore, the risks of the traffic accident appeared in the mid-air multiply those appeared on the land. In addition, the outcomes of such crashes in the air are also severer and more incredible compared with those appeared on the land.

In sight of all of the realistic factors listed above, it is almost impossible to be fewer cars in twenty years. Maybe we could expect it will occur in fifty years.