The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

“Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operation is  the retail sale of home heating oil.”

Here we have got some information about the industry in Consolidiated Industries which will be changed in the future. The memo states that an increased demand for oiling would happen in recent years. However, there are few precise evidences to proof that as following.

First, we learned that many new houses are being built to solve the population growth’s problem, but does the author indicate that how percentage of the population growth is?

If the growth is not progressive and the prediction of the population growth is not accurate, it is not necessary to build many new houses to solve the problem if there are many unoccupied houses be used. Furthermore, even if the growth is huge, the author can not ensure that resisdents in this area now will not move out recently to other cities.

As the above said, if we don’t have considerable new resisdents or houses, then the demand for the heating oil would not be increased supposedly. On the other hand, using oil as the major fuel for heating is such an antiquated way to conquer the winter cold. Even if there are many new houses be built eventually, the new house could use the modern technique without using oil to heat. From these two examples, the investment in Consolidated Industries would not be enhanced in the future.

To make the argument more convincing, the author should provide more sufficient evidences.